An Introduction to Italy’s Forthcoming Constitutional Referendum
Basic country information
When
Sunday 4 December 2016
What?
Voters are asked to answer Yes or No to the following:
Do you approve the text of the constitutional bill concerning “Dispositions for the surmounting of perfect bicameralism, the reduction of the number of Members of Parliament, the reduction of institutional operating costs, the abolition of CNEL and the revision of Title V of Part II of the Constitution,” which was approved by Parliament and published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 88, on April 15, 2016?
What does that mean?
The referendum is about Constitutional Reform. The government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi proposes a major reform to the country’s government. He claims that the current bicameral set up is too slow and too costly. Currently, the country is run in what experts call a “perfect” system in the sense that both Parliamentary chambers have equal powers which can lead to gridlocks and endless negotiations.
In the Referendum, Prime Minister Renzi is proposing an overhaul to the Senate, practically eliminating the political influence of one of its chambers by significantly reducing the number of elected Senators and appointees. His argument is that this overhaul would speed up political measures, changes, negotiations and a more rapid response to citizen’s political concerns.
What about the EU? Would this affect Italy’s membership?
No. EU membership is not part of this referendum.
But?
But, according to analysts, “A defeat for Renzi, who proposed the vote and initially pledged to resign if the result didn’t go his way, could lead to early elections and a rise in support for the populist Five Star Movement. This party has pledged to carry out a referendum on whether Italy should stay in the euro area. Some investors are already predicting the end of the European Union”
However, in spite of the populist Five Star Movement riling up support for an Italian exit (Ixit? Itaxit? exIT?) there would still be many hurdles to the actual process of exiting the Union since the Constitution bans the abrogation of international treaties via a popular vote. If Five Star Movement do end up in power, they would have to pass a constitutional reform first and only then, would they be allowed to have a referendum on whether Italy leaves the Union or not. Such reform and subsequent consultations could potentially take years to complete.
What is this Five Star Movement?
The Five Star Movement or Movimento 5 Stelle in Italian, commonly referred to as M5S is Italy’s biggest opposition group. M5S was started by Beppe Grillo, a popular comedian and blogger, and Gianroberto Casaleggio, a web strategist, on 4 October 2009. After Casaleggio’s death, the party has been led by Grillo and a Directorate composed of five leading MPs, until October 2016 when, after some scandals, Grillo announced the end of the Directorate and proclaimed himself “Political Head” of the movement.
In an explainer at The Economist, there’s this background information:
Neither of the two men who founded the movement in 2009 was a politician at the time. One was Beppe Grillo, a comedian in the mould of Michael Moore or Russell Brand. Mr Grillo has lent the M5S visibility and celebrity charisma. But it was his co-founder, Gianroberto Casaleggio, an IT executive, who gave it its distinctive character. Mr Grillo wrote that he first took the shaggy-haired internet buff to be a lunatic, but soon concluded he was a visionary. Mr Casaleggio persuaded the comedian — banished from television because of his attacks on the powerful — to start a blog. He then encouraged devotees of the blog to use the Meetup platform to form the local cells that laid the foundations for the M5S.
What distinguishes M5S from other populist movements in Europe is the use the internet to rally support. Again, as per The Economist, “the M5S sees it as the very reason for its existence: a medium remorselessly eliminating mediation of all kinds that will eventually destroy parties and make possible a form of direct democracy if the people control the government through constant voting over the web”. It is also described as cult-like in nature and dissidents are regularly purged in online ballots. Though the Party started as a left wing oppositional force, it has attracted a very significant number of right wing supporters.
Do they have significant support?
Yes and that might be an issue in the Referendum vote. They have already won by a landslide in local elections earlier this year. In Rome, where they defeated Renzi’s Party by a very significant difference, their candidate Virginia Raggi was elected the first female mayor of the capital. They also won the ballot in Turin, where another woman, Chiara Appendino was elected mayor of the City.
However, due to the constant struggles, purges and public arguments, they do not have an “official” platform or a set of delineated policies. Instead, they decide those on a case by case basis through internal voting and discussions. M5S proposals have been described as capturing “a demand for expansion of social security schemes, as well as the redistribution of wealth and social regulation of the market”. So far, they have proposed measures for income support and a guaranteed minimum income and social housing though they have not been forthcoming in explaining how those would be implemented.
There is one area where the Party has its deepest disagreements, though: immigration. Since the Party is mostly made of a combination of supporters across the entire political spectrum (from far Left to far Right). There seems to be some degree of internal division between a more humanitarian party component and the leadership that is instead against immigration.
Grillo, the comedian turned Party founder, was under criticism this past June when he tweeted that “there should be an election as soon as possible before Rome is swamped by rats, rubbish and illegal immigrants” He later on deleted the statement and posted an amended version, keeping the rats and the rubbish, but ending with “illegal immigrant camps run by the mafia”.
But who will win? Yes or No?
Nobody is entirely sure. Corriere della Sera (one of Italy’s biggest and most important newspapers) is warning the country that a win for No could represent a return to fascist ideas for Italy. Citing analysts at The Economist, they call a possible loss “a catastrophe for the country that already produced Mussolini and Berlusconi”. In lieu of more trustworthy predictions, Italians are keeping themselves occupied commenting on English bookie predictions of a “No” win by 77% .
That said, I have to agree with this analysis (in Italian) published at Forex: the referendum is an important barometer of the strength and reach of populism in Europe. The results will determine the future of M5S and its potential to make it to the highest positions of political power in Italy and eventually command the fate of the European Union as a whole.
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